Empirical Puzzles of International Criminal Justice

I’m very excited about the current project I’m working on with fellow GMU student Diana Weinert. We are in the process of data to take stabs at some very interesting questions concerning the international use of prisons and criminal justice.
One of the two papers we’re working on, I hope to use for the third section of my dissertation. To what extent do state sponsored criminal justice systems suffer from rent-seeking and capture? We’re using prison populations, police expenditures, and populations for legislatures and judiciaries to develop proxies for the size of the corresponding criminal justice institutions in various countries. These are the underlying institutional variables that induce outcomes of two kinds.
Our intuition is that countries with larger criminal justice systems are correlated with larger state power, taxes, regulation, and the other complementary institutions of criminal justice. But size doesn’t always matter. Big institutions for criminal justice doesn’t necessarily mean quality institutions. We then look at the correlations between those foundational institutions and the actual social phenomenon they are claimed to promote: peace, prosperity, property rights, etc. Looking at a first few runs of correlations it looks like the relationships between big prisons, police forces, judges, and law makers are not negatively related to crime rates and functioning property rights but weekly related at best.
The data implies that larger criminal justice institutions are more correlated with large states than they are correlated with low crime rates.

Don’t tase me… lady!

In my recent comments about the now infamous UF incident, I argued that it could partially be explained as a back lash response of over anxious campus police in the wake of the Virginia Tech massacre. Now I’d like to pose a hypothesis concerning the rise of tasering as a law enforcement technique in general. To put it breifly, I am prone to believe that the rise in the use of tasers (after and aside from their technological innovation) is correlated with an increase in the amount of female police officers.
Guns are a great equalizer of physical force. When people live in a diverse world, where some are strong and others are weak, the weak are at a great exploitable disadvantage compared to the strong. At any time the strong can simply take all they want from the weak. But with cheap and accessible hand guns, even the scrawniest of midgets armed with a Smith and Wesson can put up a good fight against the surliest of giants. Thus the costs and potential rewards of violent crime radically changes in the presence of fire arms.
Tasers and non-lethal weaponry was innovated to minimaize police liability when confronting unarmed civilians. Often times civilians are unarmed because of gun regulations and prohibitions. The typical argument in favor of non-lethal weapons is that they are non-lethal, i.e. preferable to lethal weapons. If confronted with the choice to be tasered or shot with a normal gun, I’d rather be tased — seems obvious. But the trends of tasing and police shootings don’t seem to support this argument. Rather than tasers being used as an alternative to traditional firearms, rates of police shootings with traditional firearms has remained constant since the innovation of tasers, while the use of tasers has steadily increased.
It seems like the alternative to tasing is physical force rather than traditional firepower. Using a taser has similarly non-invasive consequences as physical force but it’s much easier to apply and use. The costs of imposing physical force are dependent upon the available resource of force at the disposal of an officer. Big guys can use force cheaply and easily, scrawny officers face a bigger challenge in tackling and physically detaining suspects.
Through human history criminal populations have been mostly men compared to women. Some explanations concern, IQ, socio-biological predilections to violence, and opportunity costs. This trend has weakened significantly since the rise of the drug war. Criminality is no longer defined along margins that parse in favor of women. The difference in drug use between men and women is far smaller than the difference in committing violent crime or property crime. Also prosecuting wives and girlfriends of drug lords has served a useful bargaining device in bringing male drug offenders to trial and conviction.
Police forces attempt to diversify their officer populations to be more responsive to the communities they service. It’s a big help to have an officer who speaks Spanish in a dominantly Hispanic neighborhood. Maybe the same is true for female officers dealing with female suspects. With the rise in female criminality from the drug war, there has been a push for and subsequent rise in female officer hirings. If on average, women are physically smaller and weaker than their male counterparts then is it reasonable to assume that female officers will use tasers more often? The UF student was tased by a female officer.

When history defies what logic dictates…

Pete Boettke repeatedly drives this mantra into our heads. “When history defies what logic dictates,” that’s what makes a paper topic or a research project. Here are a few:
(1) The United States scores exceptionally on the Economic Freedom Index, this would imply a large role for free enterprise alongside a stable and reliable administration of justice. Yet at the same time, the US incarcerates more people than the world has ever known. A first response would be that the incarceration trend is in fact an integral foundation of the economic freedom, i.e. justice, law enforcement and secure property rights allow for economic freedom. But shouldn’t the ordering of the countries match for the top scorers on both economic freedom and prison populations if this were true?
in prison by country.png
(2) In the late 1980s economists and criminal justice researchers expected the 1990s to be a youth crime wave. Criminals were apparently harder and younger than in times past, yet in the US the 1990s were a time when violent crime plummeted. On the other hand the UK does not seem to be sharing the drop in crime. Culture and generational effects seem far less influential compared to policies, institutions and the incentives they create. What specific policies are driving the radically different crime rates observed in the economically similar US and UK settings? No I don’t think all the violent criminals in the US moved to the UK.
violent crime.png

Naomi Who?

When ever I’m in a book store, I spend most of my time in the social science section. Amidst history and current politics, I’ve stumbled across some fantastic authors who I never would have found without thumbing the shelves: Studs Terkel, John McPhee, and many others. But there’s always that abrasive Naomi Klein. Her book No Logo looks so radical and akin to the anarchist cookbook, that I just can’t picking it up and taking a look. Over the years I must have picked it up a dozen times, read a sentence or two, found its contents appalling, and slammed it back onto the shelf. Time goes by and the next time I’m in a book store I repeat the vicious cycle.
Klein has a new book out, Shock Doctrine, which I admit to have not read. But it seems to be getting a lot of attention (Here’s Tyler Cowen’s book review and comments from Pete Boettke 1 and 2).

My first reaction is, why do we (the economics profession) even give this woman the time of day. Here’s how my ideal conversation concerning her work would go. An interested person strikes up a conversation, “Oh you’re an economist, have you read Naomi Klein’s new book?”
The economist responds, “Who?”
“You know it’s like a best seller.”
“Where does she teach, where’s her degree from, what school of thought does she subscribe to?”
“I don’t know but she gives a devastating critique of Capitalism.”
“I guess I should look for a new line of work.”
If there’s no real theory behind the work, it must be riding to success on some alternative content: it’s plea to the public’s bias against capitalism, Klein’s emotional appeals, or her own form of shock doctrine.
Take the interview that I posted above. Klein tells the audience that free-market think tanks actually had a “meeting” after Katrina, to formulate a response plan. Oh no! you mean that the people who consider themselves experts on capitalism, business, production, distribution, development, and growth actually held themselves accountable to be relevant to the problems of the real world. Heaven forbid.
In this interview she spins the story of Katrina to sound like some conspiratorial effort is behind the growth of market institutions in the wake of Katrina. She doesn’t even entertain the fact that the alternative institutions failed at their very intended tasks. The schools, the transportation, the health care, all publicly provided, were bumbling nightmares after the storm, while Wal-Mart, Lowes, and Home Depot had trucks on the move with real productive materials and equipment ready to rebuild. The story is not one where capitalists exploit catastrophic opportunity at the expense of civic society. Instead the story is one where capitalism provides individuals with the durability, strength, and control to rebound and rebuild in ways that central planned institutions could never hope to keep up.
Why does the public like her book? Why are society’s biases aligned in her favor? She makes it sound like the half government, half market hybrid is the natural order, the way things have always and always should be. Nothing can be farther from the truth, the growth and dominance of central-planning and government control over infrastructure institutions like transportation, criminal justice, education, health care, etc., is a very new phenomenon. The alternative arrangements of these institutions evolved over thousands of years, but in the last 75 years or so the hubris of planning has run away with itself and Klein gets to be a best seller.

Liability constrains the incentives and actions of force

The private military firm Blackwater has been getting a lot of media attention lately, some good and some bad. In libertarian terms the case is not cut and dry. One part of my libertarian inner economist wants to say that private firms are better than the state at providing international defense services. David Friedman once similarly wrote that the incentives produced from a volunteer or paid army yield preferable quality outcomes compared to forced conscription and a military draft. On the other side of the debate there are some human rights issues to be concerned about. As Hart, Shleifer and Vishny (1997) have noted concerning the contracting out of prison services, private managers are often promoted to degrade quality by cutting costs to maximize profits. Benson (1994 and 2003) has similar concerns.
On net I think the market wins out on this debate but not necessarily the current so-called private firms we see today. Private companies should be more responsive to quality standards that take note of the excessive use of force compared to governments. The fact that current private firms appear to be liberal with their applications of violence is not necessarily due to their private-ness.
When governments use excessive force in international conflict they are only held in check by additional levels of international bureaucracies and governments, private firms on the other hand should be directly liable under their domestic tort systems. Unfortunately firms like Blackwater are receiving degrees of immunity specified in their contracts from American governments.
What seems obvious and affirming to my market-preference for international involvement is the fact that if the federal government were to revoke these immunities then Blackwater would conduct itself more prudently. Raise the cost to frivolous violence and it will be committed less frequently.

What if the Jena six was a civic case?

The current American legal system distinguishes between civil and criminal law. Civil law is the realm of torts and lawsuits. Charges are pressed from one person against another while criminal law is filed by the state against a criminal. As a general exercise, when I read the news I like to think what if this crime was handled as a civic offense?
Take the Jena Six case for example. The major issue behind all the media attention is racial prejudice — prejudice of the attackers, prejudice of the instigators, prejudice of the school, the courts, and the criminal justice system. Not a single participant is immune from being accused of racial prejudice. So how would this issue of racial prejudice be different if this were a civic case?
Each party’s racial prejudices would have to engage each other. The court would take second seat compared to the prosecutor’s. But the prosecutor’s would be victims of violent attack in this case. Would as many people be willing to face off against the families of victims and call them prejudiced? Would prosecutors be willing to levy cases that were prejudiced, knowing they would attract this much attention? Would courts be willing to levy rulings that seemed prejudiced knowing they could be held in alternative civic courts? It seems everyone would be much more inclined to be on their best behavior compared to the current system.

Another quote of the day

Taken from National Economic Planning, What is Left? by Don Lavoie (1985),

[W]hat is wrong with these policy debates is precisely that they do not dare to be utopian enough. that is, they confine their attention to minor modifications in the established and badly rusted out political machinery instead of trying to imagine the substitution of a fundamentally different approach altogether. What is needed is a radical perspective, both in addition to a sceintific perspective and as a logical consequence of it. We need to locate the root cause of the social maladies we have endured and stop combating their symptoms (ibid., p. 16)

Quote of the day

From page vii in the preface to Restitution to Victims of Crime by Stephen Shafer,

“The guilty man lodged, fed, clothed, warmed, lighted, entertained, at the expense of the State in a model cell, issued from it with a sum of money lawfully earned, has paid his debt to society; he can set his victims at defiance; but the victim has his consolation; he can think that by taxes he pays to the Treasury, he has contributed towards the paternal care, which has guarded the criminal during his stay in prison.” These were the bitter and sarcastic words of Prins, the Belgian, at the Paris Prison Congress in 1895, when during a discussion of the problem of restitution to victims of crime, he could no longer contain his indignation at various practical and theoretical difficulties raised against his proposals on behalf of the victim.

and on page 12:

History suggests that growing interest in the reformation of the criminal is matched by decreasing care for the victim.

Tasering, a consequence of the ratchet effect?

In Crises and Leviathan, Robert Higgs argues that times of crises are breeding grounds for the expansion of state power and authority. During the great depression, during times of warfare, during natural catastrophes, etc. citizens are desperate for solutions and the state is more than willing to offer proposals. Policy changes are drafted quickly with less attention to their long term consequences, and the public is more willing to accept them because “something has to be done — anything.”
Just a few days ago Andrew Meyer attended a lecture by John Kerry at the University of Florida. After being obnoxious and refusing to leave, several police officers restrained Meyer and tasered him several times.

This has caused quite a news splash, but amidst the litany of comments, I have yet to come across anyone mentioning that college campuses are on heightened alert ever since the Virginia Tech massacre.
In the first weeks of my semester, I can remember several long emails from our campus authorities describing additional standards and protocols that were being taken to “ensure our safety.” Maybe I was cynical but when I read the notice I thought it was mostly lip service — the illusion of security. Campuses weren’t repealing their gun control policies, instead they were telling students how to report possible threats. I assume that campus security officers were probably told, “better to be safe than sorry?” I’d bet they were instructed to take more intensive action at earlier stages because who knows what could happen otherwise. I’m not necessarily saying that these additions are bad, but they feel like they lack a real link to deterring actual acts of violence. They seem more aimed at making students feel safer, rather than actually making them safer.
As time has passed we forget how scared and helpless the VT event made us feel and the brief solace that those extra precautions gave us. But now we want to get back to using our universities for their intended purposes of discussion and debate. Those additional policies and precautions remain, and in some instances may conflict with the greater purposes of the institutions that they are designed to protect. The campus security officers don’t suddenly forget the techniques that they were taught to use. Every event gets treated as a potentially serious altercation.